Physics 16 predictions for the winner of the Presidential election of 11/4/2008 (open circles). Close circles are prices from the Iowa Electronic Markets – specifically, here.
These data were gathered semi-anonymously before most classes using the PRS system. "Semi-anonymous" means that although I could dig through the data and retrieve individual students' responses, but I didn't, because
- I promised not to, and
- Despite their enormous financial resources, neither the Obama nor the McCain campaign offered me any money for this information.
For a more professional opinion, the NYT's electoral college map includes the latest polls and also allows you to flip individual states according to your personal hunches.
Some polling may or may not conflict with these results. Frankly, it's hard to tell.